Sunday, September 23, 2007

Key Timing Builds Trader Confidence

Without a doubt, trading is 90% psychological and 10% technique. Without the proper mindset and attitude, the best trading technique does not stand a chance against a mind that is uncertain, afraid or greedy. The wrong attitude, the lack of real confidence, will assert its influence on any given trade and distort reality, resulting in making bad decisions and costly mistakes.

There can be several reasons that affect how a trader sees each trade or the market overall, or how the trader sees oneself. Without a careful self-examination along with professional direction, all the reasons may never be clear.

This article will address only one aspect of trading psychology, and that is 'trader confidence' as it relates to trading techniques.

Looking at this issue from the other direction, a trader can have very little in the way of psychological baggage and is best suited to trading, only to be hampered by trading techniques that do not instill confidence in trading decisions. Traders that lack confidence in their trading decisions are just as likely to make poor trading decisions that can result in poor results.

For nearly 20 years, my work has been mostly about market TIMING. Early in my trading career, I found myself putting on trades and then immediately starting to feel that perhaps I waited too long, or maybe I was in too early. Needless to say, this did not help in trying to manage the trade. The "not knowing" had detrimentally affected my decision making process and resulted in many painful outcomes.

With a deep study in market trend patterns, market cycles, and the development of mathematical/cyclic algorithms in forecasting future market tops and bottoms across several time frames, the issue of trading confidence became a thing in the past. There is a lot to be said about being 75-80% plus certain that the market is going to do what you expect it to do. It is good to know that you don't have to be 100% dead-on to build your confidence about your trading decisions.

The better the timing method, the lower the risk and higher the profit potential. An excellent timing method should allow the trader to determine before making the trade what the initial risk is likely to be. It should help determine when and where a trade should be initiated. And for many, it should provide ample trading opportunities.

Each trader, as part of their quest to reign in the psychological barriers that inhibit trading success, should learn to trade the markets with greater precision and come to be confident in the timing approach.

Key timing will undoubtedly include adjusting how a trader sees market trends, such as looking for opportunities to trade 'with the trend' as opposed to trying to sell the very top of a bull or buy the very bottom of a bear trend.

So in order to build trader confidence, learn effective market timing techniques that encourage trading 'with-the-trend' in order to keep risk low (helps control fear) and increase profit potential (no need to be greedy), along with good money-managing.

Of course if I left this article at this point without providing some information about Key Timing, it would leave many dissatisfied. So I will include my biased opinion about precision timing. Our trading membership ( specializes in precision market timing. Our trade setups are based on FDates, a proprietary mathematical/cyclical approach to calculate when to expect the market to make swing tops and bottoms in advance, coupled with a simple procedure to determine when and where to place our trades as well as know what our initial risk will be prior to putting on the trade. As mentioned earlier in this article, these are the things we need to build our confidence in the trading decisions we make.

Rick J. Ratchford has been trading since 1989 and since 1996 is an Analyst for ProfitMax Trading Inc., a membership for traders specializing in the advance forecasting of market tops and bottoms for Precision Timing the Futures, Commodity and Forex markets.

"Know Today the Market Turns of Tomorrow!"