Real Estate Property Investment Series: Focus Dubai 2007

Dubais is a property market of two halvesas it is still a relatively young market in terms of its accessibility for foreign buyers it still has an active off plan residential real estate marketplace, and now it also has a resale and rental market too. This article examines the prospects for both in 2007

Dubais Off Plan Real Estate Prospects in 2007

When it first became possible for foreigner buyers to own freehold real estate in certain areas of Dubai there was an immediate frenzy of interest as properties were selling for relatively low prices in a location where there was already intense demand from expatriate workers for housing.

Both investors and expats living locally in Dubai went head to head for real estate and the off plan property investment cycle was born.

Investors have been making excellent profits from buying properties off plan in Dubai and paying just a deposit for them before flipping the incomplete units back onto a market where demand has been hungry for such property stock. Those who have bought in particularly well located and attractive high rises have often profited most by buying at the point of project conception and then holding stock until all other units had been sold outby waiting until demand for properties was outstripping the supply and then re-floating off plan stock on to the waiting market, investors have taken good profits in a relatively short space of time.

However, for such a market for profitability to continue there has to be a driving demand from other investors to buy flipped on properties and evidence suggests that this will not continue to be the case throughout 2007. Its a fact that profits derived from taking such an investment approach have softened recently because prices have risen so high, and the thought that Dubais property market can continue rising unabated and unchecked forever is nave at best and dangerous at worst.

Investors who take this flipping approach never actually intend paying for their properties, instead they rely on the fact there will be a waiting market hungry to buy resales off plan and all evidence is suggesting that this demand is waning and that the off plan market for investors could show signs of weakness in 2007.

Dubais Resale and Rental Real Estate Prospects in 2007

All is not lost - Dubais resale market and the future prospects for completed property stock are very good indeed for 2007 and beyond. Basically there is such intense and growing demand for real estate in Dubai with 5,000 new families moving to the emirate every month that supply cannot keep up with demand which pushes up rental rates charged and the underlying value of completed resale properties.

As each and every individual, couple or family arriving requires decent accommodation within easy reach and short commute of the main free trade zones and business areas, completed property stock across Dubai is intensely in demand meaning rental rates are already soaring and property prices are creeping higher. Dubai is also suffering from severe construction delays, a worsening shortage of construction workers and an excessive increase in the price of building materials which is holding back new projects and meaning that the predicted number of units to be completed in 2007 has been revised downwards. Clearly supply is not about to flow into the market any time soon and so the profitability of and desire for completed stock will rise.

Real estate investors looking for good performing property assets in Dubai need to buy completed stock in a good location that is not highly adversely affected by the commute issues plaguing Dubai at the moment - and then and only then can they be assured of strong returns in 2007 and beyond.

Rhiannon Williamson writes about property investment worldwide, to read more about property investment in Dubai in 2007 and beyond visit her site http://www.amberlamb.com

What's Happening In Real Estate Right Now And Where Is It Going?

1. Analysis of Today's Market
2. Update On Gold
3. Real Estate Prices In South Florida
4. Real Estate Nationwide
5. Yield Curve Is Still Inverted
6. What this means to you

1. Analysis of today's market

As an analyst of the economy and the real estate market, one must be patient to see what unfolds and to see if one's predictions are right or wrong. One never knows if they will be right or wrong, but they must have a sense of humility about it so that they are not blind to the reality of the marketplace.

In March of 2006, my eBook How To Prosper In the Changing Real Estate Marketplace. Protect Yourself From The Bubble Now! stated that in short order the real estate market would slow down dramatically and become a real drag on the economy. We are experiencing this slowdown currently and the economy I feel is not far from slowing down as well. History has repeatedly shown that a slow down in the real estate market and construction market has almost always led to an economic recession throughout America's history.

Let's look at what is happening in the following areas to see what we can gleam from them: Gold, Real Estate in South Florida, Real Estate Nationwide, Yield Curve/Economy and see what this means to you:

2. Gold

If you have read this newsletter and/or the eBook, you know I am a big fan of investing in gold. Why? Because I believe that the US dollar is in serious financial peril. But gold has also risen against all of the world's currencies, not just the US dollar.

Why has gold risen? Gold is a neutral form of currency, it can't be printed by a government and thus it is a long term hedge against currency devaluation. James Burton, Chief Executive of the Gold Council, recently said: "Gold remains a very important reserve asset for central banks since it is the only reserve asset that is no one's liability. It is thus a defense against unknown contingencies. It is a long-term inflation hedge and also a proven dollar hedge while it has good diversification properties for a central bank's reserve asset portfolio."

I agree with Mr. Burton 100%. I believe we will even see a bubble in gold again and that is why I have invested in gold to profit from this potential bubble (Think real estate prices around the year 2002 - wouldn't you like to have bought more real estate back then?)

I had previously recommended that you buy gold when it was between $580 and $600 an ounce. Currently, gold is trading at around $670 an ounce up more than 10% from the levels I recommended. However, gold has some serious technical resistance at the $670 level and if it fails to break out through that level it might go down in the short-term. If it does go down again to the $620 - $640 level, I like it at these levels as a buy. I believe that gold will go to $800 an ounce before the end of 2007.

3. Real Estate in South Florida

Real estate in South Florida has been hit hard by this slowdown as it was one of the largest advancers during the housing boom. The combination of rising homes for sale on the market, the amazing amount of construction occurring in the area and higher interest rates have been three of the major factors of the slowdown.

For every home that sold in the South Florida area in 2006, an average of 14 did not sell according to the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data. The number of homes available for sale on the market doubled to around 66,000, as sales slowed to their lowest level in 10 years.

Even though home prices were up for the year of 2006, the average asking price for homes in December was down about 13 percent compared to a year ago. From 2001 to 2005, the price of a single-family home in Miami-Dade increased 120 percent to $351,200. This is also similar to what happened in Broward County. The problem is that wages during that time only increased by 17.6% in Miami-Dade, and 15.9% in Broward, according to federal data. This is the other major factor that is contributing to the slowdown - real estate prices far outpaced incomes of potential buyers of these homes.

Another factor that helped drive the South Florida boom in prices was high growth in population in Florida. From 2002 to 2005, more than a million new residents moved to Florida and Florida also added more jobs than any other state. However, the three largest moving companies reported that 2006 was the first time in years that they had moved more people out of the state of Florida than into it. Also, school enrollment is declining which could be another sign that middle-class families are leaving.

By far though, the area of South Florida real estate that will be hit hardest is and will continue to be the condominium market. Due to their lower prices than homes, condos make financial sense in the South Florida area. However, the supply of available condos has tripled over the past year and it will get worse before it gets better. More than 11,500 new condos are expected this year and 15,000 next year with the majority of them being built in Miami.

As a result of the oversupply, asking prices for condos are down 12% in 2006 in Miami to $532,000. And incentives are substituting for price cuts. These incentives include paying all closing costs to free upgrades and more.

The last point to think about affecting South Florida real estate is the escalating costs of property insurance and property taxes. These increasing costs are putting more downward pressure on real estate prices.

My strong belief is that we are only starting to see the slowdown of the South Florida real estate market and that prices will continue to fall. Due to the fact that many real estate investors are pulling out, where are the next wave of buyers going to come from at these current prices? Unless a serious influx of new, high paying jobs enter the South Florida area, real estate prices, just like any asset that falls out of favor after a large runup only have one way to go... down.

4. Real Estate Nationwide

A report released last week from the National Association of Realtors showed that in the last three months of 2006 home sales fell in 40 states and median home prices dropped in nearly half of the metropolitan areas surveyed. The median price of a previously owned, single family home fell in 73 of the 149 metropolitan areas surveyed in the 4th quarter.

The National Association of Realtors report also said that the states with the biggest declines in the number of sales in October through December compared with the same period in 2005 were:

* Nevada: -36.1% in sales

* Florida: -30.8% in sales

* Arizona: -26.9% in sales

* California: -21.3% in sales

Nationally, sales declined by 10.1% in the 4th quarter compared with the same period a year ago. And the national median price fell to $219,300, down 2.7% from the 4th quarter of 2005.

Slower sales and cancellations of existing orders have caused the number of unsold homes to really increase. The supply of homes at 2006 sales rate averaged 6.4 months worth which was up from 4.4 months worth in 2005 and only 4 months worth in 2004.

Toll Brothers, Inc., the largest US luxury home builder, reported a 33% drop in orders during the quarter ending January 31.

Perhaps most importantly, falling home values will further decrease their use of mortgage equity withdrawal loans. In 2006, mortgage equity withdrawal accounted for 2% of GDP growth. Construction added 1% to last years GDP growth, so the importance of these factors are to the health of the US economy are enormous.

The other concern is sub-prime mortgages. Today, sub-prime mortgages amount to 25% of all mortgages, around $665 billion. Add to this the fact that approximately $1 trillion in adjustable-rate mortgages are eligible to be reset in the next two years and we will continue to see rising foreclosures. For example, foreclosures are up five times in Denver. These foreclosed homes come back onto the market and depress real estate values.

The Center for Responsible Lending estimates that as many as 20% of the subprime mortgages made in the last 2 years could go into foreclosure. This amounts to about 5% of the total homes sold coming back on the market at "fire-sales". Even if only 1/2 of that actually comes back on the market, it would cause overall valuations to go down and the ability to get home mortgage equity loans to decrease further.

Prepare yourself now because you can still get great advice from the eBook. Buy it with this secure link: https://shop.outstandingebooks.com/displayProductDocument.hg?productId=1

5. Yield Curve is still inverted!

The yield curve is still inverted. In a normal market, you get more interest (yield) for longer term investments. But very rarely the short-term rates become higher than long term rates such as now.

History has shown that an inverted yield curve is the best indicator of a future recession. The yield curve has been inverted since last fall, and if history is any judge we should be in a recession by the 3rd quarter of 2007. Throughout history, we have never had an inverted yield curve without a recession within the next 4 quarters.

The inverted yield curve does not cause the recession, it is simply a signal that something is out of whack in the economy.

6. What this means to you

One of two things could happen going forward in the real estate market: real estate prices will go up or they will go down. History has shown us that any asset that runs up, must come down, whether we are talking about the Dutch Tulip Market, the stock market bubble, the gold bubble of the early 1980s, or Japan's run-up in housing in the 1980's and subsequent 15 year decrease in values.

The big picture of the real estate market is that it goes up and down in cycles. It has been in an up cycle for 10 years and it is most likely time for it to face it's down cycle.

This is the natural cycle of assets:

* Markets go up

* Greed and insanity take over

* An excess forms (i.e. overbuilding)

* A downturn corrects the excesses in the market

This natural cycle is the same principle in "the big picture" as crash dieting is in "the little picture". We starve ourselves to lose 15 pounds, which shuts down our body for the short term, only for it to crank up higher when we go back to "normal" eating patterns.

And speaking of diets, I heard from an old high school buddy who has lost weight on a "cookie" diet where he eats one high protein dinner a day and only 6 low fat cookies throughout the day whenever he is hungry. While he has lost weight on this 800 calorie a day diet, I can't see how it is healthy to starve yourself like that. He told me that whenever he breaks his diet and eats any sodium, he immediately gains one and a half pounds. Talk about your body out of whack! I still recommend exercise (www.mattfurey.com) combined with a low white-carb diet (no white bread, white pastas, and limited sugars). It works for me.

Set your portfolio up correctly now by reading the eBook at www.myrealestatebubble.com.

***Disclaimer: This information and the corresponding websites do not constitute professional services, including, but not limited to investment advice. Please consult a finance and/or investment professional for services and advice.

Louis Hill, MBA received his Masters In Business Administration from the Chapman School at Florida International University, specializing in Finance. He was one of the top graduates in his class and was one of the few graduates inducted into the Beta Gamma Sigma Business Honor Society.

Mr. Hill received his undergraduate degree from the University of Florida with a double major in Finance and Risk Management.

For the past several years he has been working in a South Florida commercial real estate lender that specializes in financing real estate developers. Mr. Hill has extensive experience in commercial lending and has seen firsthand the behind the scene challenges and pitfalls that real estate developers are experiencing. He has also seen how things have been deteriorating rapidly in the real estate market. He is also a professional consultant to professional real estate developers and investors.

Mr. Hill is very active in many civic groups and charities.

Where to Invest Your Money

If you are new to investing, or even if you've been playing the market for a while, investment options can be overwhelming. Stocks, bonds, mutual funds. How do you pick the best place to invest your money? That's quite a decision!

Here are some tips that can help you get started:

If you are planning for a long-term investment, it may be wisest to go with stocks. History shows that stocks outperform other investing options over the long term. For example, from 1926 to 2004, the stock market had an average annual gain of 10.4%, compared with only 5.4% for bonds and even less for other forms of investing.

That said, stocks may not be such a good option for short-term investing. They tend to be more risky and can undergo severe losses. Unless you're planning to keep your money there for a long time, you might not want to weather the stress of the stock market's ups and downs. Overall, a company's earnings are going to be the biggest player in a stock's fluctuation.

If you're willing to take a little bit of risk with your investing-or a lot-you probably will notice a bigger payoff. Stocks, for example, are a riskier investment than bonds. But again, stocks tend to bring in a much higher return. On the other hand, there is also the chance that your stock will dip and you may suffer a great loss. That's all part of the game.

If you're looking for a low-risk, surefire investment strategy, U.S. Treasury bonds may be the way to go. The government has a lot of power over these bonds. Because of this, investing in these bonds is generally considered risk-free. Keep in mind, however, that bonds don't do so well when interest rates rise. Conversely, when interest rates go down, bond prices rise. This is particularly true with long-term bonds.

To be safe, the best advice is to diversify your portfolio. If you practice investing in a number of different areas, you are least likely to lose it all. (Remember the Enron scandal? Don't make that mistake!) Some investments will go up, others will go down. But at least you can be pretty sure you won't lose it all. Chances are, with a little research, some self-education, and careful investing, you'll build your savings substantially. Happy investing!

Jeff Lakie is the founder of Investing Information a website providing information on Investing.

Productive Ebay Income - How to Get it

Companies around the world are doing their business online: and Ebay certainly does not miss all the action. There is such a thrill in the sport of bidding, and more customers are willing to join in the game than just purchase an expensive item in another online store. So if a company wants to have a productive Ebay income, there are three things to put in mind to get it: originality, quality and quantity.

Ebay is a haven for the best and weirdest stuff even celebrity garbage can end up in auction! For this reason, a company must set its items apart from the competition. Its originality lies not only on the nature of items being sold, but the packaging and presentation as well. If all aspects are impressive and unique, no doubt more people will bid.

The second important aspect is quality: just one defective item will cost the reputation of the company, since Ebay has a reliable feedback system. So make sure that all the products sold by the business are inspected, cared for, and prepared properly for shipping. The last thing to remember is quantity make sure that the company can accommodate orders and requests.

Remember, bidders will not just be interested in one or two. If they recognize that you are a company, they may try to do bulk orders. So make sure stock is always at hand, and be considerate with the buyers. Try to limit or reduce shipping costs if they are buying multiple items.

Do you want to learn more about how I do it? I have just completed my brand new guide to article marketing success, Your Article Writing and Promotion Guide

Download it free here: Secrets of Article Promotion

Sean Mize is a full time internet marketer who has written over 1574 articles in print and 11 published ebooks.

San Francisco

San Francisco, a city in western California is coextensive with San Francisco County. Famous for its beautiful setting, San Francisco is primarily located on the northern tip of a peninsula at the entrance to San Francisco Bay. It is bordered by the Pacific Ocean on the west, the strait known as Golden Gate on the north, San Francisco Bay on the east, and San Bruno Mountain on the south. Alcatraz, Angel, Farallon, Treasure, and Yerba Buena islands are part of the city.

POPULATION

The population of San Francisco increased from 678,974 in 1980 to 723,959 in 1990; the population was 735,315 in 1996. According to the 1990 census, whites constitute 53.6 percent of San Francisco's population; Asians and Pacific Islanders, 29.1 percent; blacks, 10.9 percent; and Native Americans, 0.5 percent. Hispanics, who may be of any race, represent 13.3 percent of the population. San Francisco is part of a major metropolitan region that also includes Oakland and San Jose. The region's population increased from 5,368,000 in 1980 to 6,253,000 in 1990, reaching an estimated 6,940,000 in 2004.

ECONOMY

San Francisco is a leading financial and international trade center for the western United States. The downtown financial district contains the Pacific Coast Stock Exchange; the headquarters of the 12th Federal Reserve District; and numerous banks and corporate office buildings, including the home office of the Bank of America, one of the largest banks in the world. Tourism is also important to the city's economy. The San Francisco region is also home to many companies developing computer software and hardware. Several national apparel manufacturers also have headquarters in the city.

EDUCATIONAL AND CULTURAL INSTITUTIONS

The main institutions of higher education in San Francisco are San Francisco State University (1899), the University of San Francisco (1855), Golden Gate University (1853), the University of California-San Francisco (1864), the New College of California (1971), the University of California Hastings College of Law (1878), the San Francisco Art Institute (1871), the Academy of Art College (1929), the San Francisco Conservatory of Music (1917), and a large community college. San Francisco has many performing-arts organizations. Among the best known are the San Francisco Symphony Orchestra, the San Francisco Ballet, the San Francisco Opera, and the American Conservatory Theater.

For more information, visit The San Francisco Help Center

David Chandler
For your FREE Stock Market Trading Mini Course: "What The Wall Street Hot Shots Won't Tell You!" go to: The Stock Market Genie

Well Managed Investing Risks Bring Rewards!

"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing!" Warren Buffett (1930 - )

We often listen to people who hesitate to invest in the stock market because they fear risk. There are older people who fear that a stock crash could leave them destitute. There are young couples who pine for a new home but worry that an investment loss could kill their chances.

For any investor, risk is a fact of life!

Whenever an opportunity opens up for you to make an investment profit, you also face the fear of the possibility of suffering an investment loss. Even with "safe" kinds of investments, such as bank deposits, there is a risk that the rate you earn will not exceed the rate of inflation.

Often, these fears are rooted in a misunderstanding of what risk is. Those who understand market risks --and properly evaluate their ability to tolerate them-- can supercharge their investment portfolios by embracing a certain amount of uncertainty!

In the financial world, risk translates to uncertainty and it's measured by standard deviation from the norm.

Many individuals would say the riskier investment is the first, because their principal would be in greater jeopardy. But to professionals, the first investment is merely stupid --not risky--because it's a sure thing to lose!

Still, what worries many is that you never know when the stock market is going to dive. What if it falls right before you need to sell?

Most individuals measure risk as their chance of loss, but we measure risk by the variability of returns!

In other words, because stocks have higher average returns, you can suffer some losses and still end up vastly ahead over the long run.

There's only one situation in which adding stocks to your portfolio doesn't make sense--when you don't have time to let the market work for you.

In any given year, you have about a 1 in 4 chance of taking a loss in the stock market. If one year or less is as long as you plan to invest, stocks boil down to a gamble.

But if your time horizon is five years or more, there's a very good chance that putting at least a portion of your money in stocks will boost the performance of your investments!

One question you have to resolve is the kind of investment risk you're comfortable taking. The choice ranges from conservative to aggressive, with a broad middle ground between the extremes.

Conservative Investing: Means putting money where there's little risk to principal.

Moderate Investing: Means taking risks by putting money into growth stocks and bonds.

Aggressive or Speculative Investing: Means taking a possible risk of losing part of your investment in exchange for the possibility of making a larger profit.

The ideal risk equalizer is that you should work for balance among the various risk categories.

One of your concerns should also be that if you invest too conservatively, you won't have enough money down the road to afford your goals even if you've been diligent in following your plan.

Another concern is that by taking too many chances you risk losing too much of your capital.

Ioannis - Evangelos C. Haramis was born in Greece in 1951 and he studied in Greece, USA and in Belgium. He has been active in the stock markets since 1972. Since 2002 he is New Business Development Managing Director at an Investment Bank and the editor of http://www.greekshares.com

Copyright 2005 I.E.C. Haramis

haramis@greekshares.com
http://www.greekshares.com