The Effect of Human Emotion on Investment Decisions and the Overall Economy

Economics is simply "the study of life" and the choices we make. Human emotion is perhaps the strongest force in the economic and financial environment. It gets its appropriate level of respect in the real world--and a very short shrift in the land of academia. Human emotion...the need to stay up with the Joneses...the drive to get a great deal...the drive to make a killing on an investment or a property...all can contribute to positive or negative developments in the economy.

Fear & Greed...Stocks

Emotion at times can be the primary driver of stock prices, whether up or down. The powerful emotion of fear can motivate holders of stocks or other financial assets to sell, at times regardless of the price received. The equally powerful emotion of greed can motivate investors to buy various assets, even when the inner voice might suggest the price is too high. Only later, in many cases, can investors recognize that they were "caught in the moment" and let emotion drive their actions.

Greed was clearly center stage during the second half of the 1990s and the first quarter of 2000, especially in regard to Internet stocks and the NASDAQ. Greed drove many Internet-based companies to sky-high stock market valuations, even as many of these companies lacked profitability or a reasonable chance to become profitable anytime soon. The overall NASDAQ was pushed to a high of 5049, much higher than many investors and market players deemed logical or possible.

At such unsustainable levels, fear soon became the more dominant emotion. The fear of millions of investors eventually pushed the NASDAQ down to 1113, a decline of nearly 80%. Hundreds of thousands of investors saw major losses in their retirement portfolios, requiring them to either stay in the workforce longer or return to gainful employment in order to rebuild damaged portfolios.

Fear & Greed...Real Estate

A similar greed-based rise was also found in the nation's real estate market in recent years. Tens of thousands of investors pulled their funds from the stock market and sought a new avenue to riches--real estate was just the ticket.

The decline of both short-term and long-term interest rates during 2001-2003 provided thousands of homebuyers with the opportunity to purchase their first homes. Tens of thousands of existing homeowners took advantage of the lowest home financing rates in 40 years to "trade up" to more valuable properties.

The Flippers

In addition, investors and speculators by the thousands began to push real estate values higher. Many of these investors, commonly known as "flippers," took advantage of extremely low short- and long-term financing rates to purchase additional properties.

It was not uncommon in hot real estate markets on the East Coast, the West Coast, and in the nation's Southwest for flippers to appear at announcements of new single-family and condominium developments, with the intent of buying multiple properties. Many of these flippers were successful in immediately bumping prices higher, and were able to pocket significant profits with limited risk.

Other flippers came belatedly to the game in late 2005 and 2006, and were ultimately stuck with multiple properties to finance, with limited potential buyers. Many of these flippers, as well as thousands of more legitimate homeowners, faced the bleak task of trying to unload properties at a time when many other investors were engaged in the same process. Their financing plight was made worse by the impact of 17 monetary tightening moves by the Federal Reserve through June 2006.

The problems of sub-prime lenders are serious in today's real estate market and are discussed ad nauseum in the media. The additional issue of flippers looking to liquidate investment properties adds to current real estate woes in many formerly high-flying markets.

Economic futurist Jeff Thredgold is President of Thredgold Economic Associates, a professional speaking and economic consulting company.

Since 1976, Jeff's weekly economic and financial newsletter, Tea Leaf, has been helping people make sense of the tangled maze of the U.S. and global economy and financial markets in a light, approachable style. Sign up to receive the free Tea Leaf email newsletter.

Jeff is the author of econAmerica: Why the American Economy is Alive and Well...and What That Means to Your Wallet (Wiley, 2007), and On the One Hand...The Economist's Joke Book.

His career includes 23 years with $96 billion banking giant KeyCorp, where he served as Senior VP and Chief Economist. He now serves as economic consultant to $50 billion Zions Bancorporation, which has banks in 10 states.

Fixed Indexed Annuity: Bank CD Alternative

A fixed indexed annuity (FIA) is the product of choice for top selling annuity agents who are tired of seeing their clients lose money in low interest rate CDs. A fixed indexed annuity is a hybrid fixed product that is fast becoming the new safe home for billions of former CD, stock market and mutual fund dollars. And with good reason.

HOW IT WORKS

A FIA provides a safety net of usually 1-3% interest compounded annually. But this is just the minimum guarantee through the contract term. The upside earning potential is much higher.

As the name implies, the fixed indexed annuity is tied to an equity index such as the Standard & Poors 500. The S&P 500 is the benchmark for U.S. equity markets, representing the general health of the overall stock market. As the market goes up your client's earnings go up because they participate in a percentage of the increase. But (and this very important) when the stock market comes back down again as it always does, your clients dont lose any money.

WHAT WAS THAT AGAIN?

This bears repeating. When the stock market goes up, earnings go up with it subject to a cap. But when the market comes back down again as it always does, the policy does not lose any money. Earnings are locked in at each annual anniversary index point. FIA owners earn 2 or 3 times the guaranteed interest rate when the stock market goes up, and when the stock market comes back down again they get to keep all profits. Upside earnings without the downside risk. How cool is that?

TAX DEFERRED GROWTH

Whats more, your client's earnings grow tax deferred as long as they stay in the annuity. This means they earn even more money on the portion they dont have to send Uncle Sam. Unlike a CD, there is no Form 1099 to add to income tax returns each year. Why pay taxes on income you dont spend? Seniors citizens are especially fond of Fixed Indexed Annuities since deferred interest is not counted as provisional income and can reduce or eliminate taxation of Social Security benefits. FIAs are also becoming the favorite funding vehicle in small business retirement plans like the 401(k) and SEP-IRA.

WHAT TO DO?

Whether you sell to retirees or future retirees, you owe it to yourself to learn why millions of people are moving billions (actually, trillions) of dollars into fixed indexed annuities. Theyre the sensible alternative that can make you very large commissions.

http://www.Free-Insurance-Leads.com Gary Le Mon is a wholesale distributor of fixed indexed annuities for Allianz, American Equity, Sun Life Financial, and ING. Author and developer of the Safe Money Seminar, a financial planning seminar for Seniors, Gary serves as guest speaker on behalf of agents and agencies nationwide. He is coach, mentor and motivator to over 700 general agents in his insurance marketing organization, InsuranStar Marketing. See also Insurance-Lead-Programs.com.

How Does Business Achieve High Performance?

Want a High Performance Organization?

For a while now we have been hearing a great deal about High Performance Organizations and High Performance Management and how achieving high performance will improve your business. In fact in todays technologically advanced, global economy high performance is not an alternative it is a requirement for all businesses that want to prosper in the years to come. The terminology of high performance sounds pretty straightforward; if performance is at a peak then the business processes should follow suit and so then should productivity, profits, and competitiveness. Lets investigate how it works.

How does business achieve high performance?

The standard methodology for achieving high performance within the workplace has been to breakaway from the traditional and highly structured model of business organization to one that is more organic and flexible. Within these organic systems managers are encouraged to create teams of employees who work together toward a common business goal. The teams are empowered to make decisions and solve problems, they monitor and improve their quality, and each individual employee is seen as a contributing business partner.

Utopia at last, people have meaningful work, employees are respected and trusted, creativity and innovation flourish, quality improves, and productivity reaches levels unheard of only months before. Yeah right!

So, what really happens? Why does the theory of High Performance so often get derailed when it is based on sound principles of human behavior and motivation?

The problem is not with the theory, it is in the execution!!!. Our culture is so indentured to the traditional model of organization that, despite our best efforts, it is almost impossible to remove the vestiges of managerial control, division of labor, and the reams and reams of policies and procedures that trap employees into doing things one way, and one way only. When well meaning executives, managers, and consultants get a hold of the notion of High Performance Management they often rush to create teams, write new job descriptions, set up feedback systems, and create elaborate reward and recognition programs all in an effort to convince their employees that they are valued and respected and that their contributions are meaningful and appreciated and will be rewarded.

Again, all sound notions but the problem is that these programs address only surface issues and they do not even begin to attack the traditional notions and customs that continue to prevail. Think of organizational dynamics like an iceberg where only 10% of the issues are visible on the surface and the bulk remains hidden and potentially menacing underneath. In truly High Performance workplaces managers do not have to convince employees that they are valued, the employees inherently know they are valued simply by the way the work is organized and performed.

So whats wrong with this picture????

The organization that is trying to be High Performance is really no more than a traditional organization in disguise. It has adopted new terminology and is trying out some new human resource management techniques but the organization has NOT CHANGED the way that it approaches the system of working. Work is still narrowly defined and departmentalized and management is still controlling and directing the flow. On the surface it may sound like things have changed but the employees know they are doing exactly what they did before; except now, they are part of a team doing it.

Make a real transition using Human Capital Management (HCM)

The only way to move toward true High Performance is to adopt a system of Human Capital Management that helps measure and execute real changes in the way that human capital (resources) is managed. It starts with the realization and acknowledgement that your human, or intangible capital is as important as your tangible capital and that like the tangible items, human capital needs to measured and accounted for on a consistent basis. Just as you want to keep your equipment in top shape so should you keep your people in top shape ready and capable of performing the job they were hired to perform. Just as you seek investment opportunities for your financial capital to grow, so you need to invest in your human capital and provide them with opportunities to grow.

By attending and understanding the needs of your employees you allow them to perform to their capacity. This maximum capacity yields high productivity and that is when you truly have a High Performance organization.

High Performance is as critical as it is possible. It is a process that starts with philosophical change and ends with practical solutions that lead to substantial improvements in the way work is accomplished, the way work is perceived, and the amount of work that is achieved. Practicing effective Human Capital Management that encompasses how the entire organization runs and how it evaluates employee success, will create a natural link to High Performance Management that will see businesses emerge as healthy, prosperous, and highly competitive.

Eva Jenkins is a visionary entrepreneur whose rich history of accomplishments in business and finance serve as both the foundation of and the fuel for her current success with VIP Staffing and VIP Innovations. Jenkins a lightening rod for innovative thought and a divining rod for uncovering hidden potential in businesses. Armed with a keen understanding of the dynamics of human capital aqcquisitions and an astute sense of the best way to leverage that capital, she uses her unique high-performance principles to help companies re-shape their fundamental business beliefs and practices. Her goal is to prepare her clients so that they may respond to, and more importantly anticipate, the precedent-setting HR challenges in today's evolving international global economy.

If You are Serious About Building Wealth, Follow the Behavior of the Ultra-Rich, Not the Rich

The Myths of the Wealthy Spread by the Mass Media

Recently, there was an article on CNNMoney that spoke about the secrets of the elite rich in the United States. In turn, several articles were written about this article, including one that stated that the richest of Americans built their wealth with diversification, wealth preservation and strategic growth. That is a ridiculous statement in itself because two of those strategies, diversification and preservation dont help build wealth. Perhaps the richest of Americans use these two strategies to maintain an even keel AFTER they have accumulated great wealth, but certainly they didnt use them during the accumulation phase. According to this article, a survey of Northern Trust uncovered that the richest Americans do not heavily rely on high-risk investment vehicles like hedge funds to make money, but are moderate risk takers who put more than half of their asset allocation into U.S. stocks and cash.

Again, just as former hedge fund manager and multi-millionaire Jim Cramer said that he used certain financial journalists, including ones employed by the Wall Street Journal, as pawns to spread misinformation far and wide to benefit himself, again this is an example of investment institutions using the media as pawns to spread their myths to keep the masses of retail investors ignorant. The CNNMoney article made it appear that the richest of Americans built their wealth by being conservative and slowly growing their money over time. Thats an oxymoron right there. To state that the rich became rich by slowly growing their money over time. Well, if they are slowly growing their money and becoming even richer, then this implies that they were rich to begin with. So how did they accumulate wealth? Surely not by slowly growing their money.

Sure, some of the richest Americans do not heavily rely on high-risk investments because they ARE ALREADY EXTREMELY RICH. The majority of ultra-rich do NOT build their fortunes by speculating on high-risk investments as is commonly believed. Often they build fortunes utilizing volatile assets and investments but that does not mean they were engaging in risky behavior. Many times, investing in a hedge fund can be much riskier than investing in some of the assets that your investment firm will tell you is risky. But investment firms will gladly place a portion of your money in hedge funds because the fees they earn from hedge funds are so high even as they advise you not to put your money in a much less risky investment with much greater earning potential. And this is the secret that investment firms never tell you. Volatile assets that often can be used to build great wealth are NOT RISKY if they are purchased at entry points that are extremely favorable and provide a low-risk point of entry. 99% of investors dont understand what high-risk investments truly are because they have been misinformed by their advisors and their firms for the past half of a century. Purchasing volatile assets at low risk-high reward entry points greatly mitigates and neutralizes the great majority of risk of volatile assets. If you dont understand this concept then you need to.

Replace Investment Firms Dumb Asset Gathering Sales Strategies with Intelligent Asset Growing Strategies

Many millionaires that are wealthy but that could be extremely wealthy fail to build enormous wealth because investment and financial institutions mislead them about certain asset classes and describe them as complex and risky and are able to convince their clients of this belief because they never properly explain risk-reward scenarios to their clients. However, those investors that are extremely wealthy are the rare breed that understand this concept. If investors had a choice between allocating $1,000,000 in a historically volatile Investment A that has a 78% chance of returning a 250% gain versus an Investment B that has a 95% chance of earning 9%, most investors would choose Investment A. However, because Investment A may exhibit 50% more volatility than Investment B, the great majority of advisors would steer their client away from the former investment into the latter one. In fact, this is exactly what even prestigious firms that cater to ultra high net-worth clients do because they allow misinformed, uneducated investors dictate the rules of engagement to them, and they would much rather appease such powerful, important people with slow,minimal gains rather than empower and enlighten them and boost their returns like never before. They would choose to steer them away because they present the investment opportunities incorrectly, merely telling their client that while they could earn 350% from Investment A there was also a very realistic probability that they could lose $300,000, and that shooting for the slow but steady $90,000 a year is much better for them.

If you are thinking to yourself, That makes absolutely no sense? Why would firms not earn 20% a year for their clients if they could instead of 8% a year? The answer is because the overwhelming majority of investment firms, no matter how prestigious their brand, are merely highly glorified sales machines. They fail to convince clients to invest in phenomenal investment opportunities that sometimes arise like Investment A because in order for Investment A to be a moderate risk, very high reward investment, it must be entered at a low risk entry point so that the probability of being down $300,000 at any give time would be reduced from perhaps 50% to 20%. And that even if their timing is not optimal, then a firm must educate the client that as long as they dont panic when they are down, the odds are still extremely high that they will earn a 250% or better gain. However, the greatest factor that determines why firms will not seek this strategy is time. Engaging in much better strategies such as these for their clients would take massive amounts of time in client education and enough time in research that the amount of assets gathered would take a serious hit.

So because it is not in a firms interest to engage in activities that maximize portfolio returns (unless it is their own institutional portfolio), instead, we have Chief Investment Officers at top investment firms making statements like, "Generally they [the richest of Americans] want to see prudently managed growth without a lot of surprises, which is why we emphasize diversification." Again, this is a sales & marketing campaign statement, not an aboveboard statement about how to make money for clients. If clients are uncomfortable with strategies that would actually built great wealth for them instead of producing mediocre or subpar returns, their discomfort only originates from the fact that the largest investment firms have been deceiving their clients, just as Jim Cramer had deceived the thundering sheep herd for years, about the realities of building wealth. This discomfort originates solely from the fact that he or she has been kept in the dark for so long.

Despite What Investment Firms Tell You, Myopia and a Concentration in U.S. Stock Markets Will NOT Optimize Your Portfolio Returns

Thus, we have a misinformation-driven cauldron of bad investment decisions that exist today. In 2007, youll still find Chief Investment Officers of very well known firms making ridiculous statement that investors need to invest at least 50% of their stock portfolio in U.S. stocks if they wish to grow their portfolios exponentially. How are they going to grow their portfolios exponentially with more than half of their stocks in a stock market (the U.S.) that has NEVER been the best performing market in the past 25 years (even among developed stock markets)? How will they grow their portfolios exponentially by buying stocks in market that trades in what is quite possibly the worst currency on earth among developed markets (the U.S. dollar)? Yes I know that when the U.S. dollar shows a brief spike in strength as is likely to happen soon (Im writing this article in April, 2007), that many people will question what I am saying, but this is only again because they are victims to the mass deception mind-games of the investment industry. I suppose if planning to earn better than subpar returns in your stock portfolio is engaging in risky behavior as Chief Investment Officers of various firms claim, then yes, I whole-heartedly endorse engaging in risky behavior.

And because so many people, yes even those considered quite wealthy, fall victim to the preaching of investment industry demagogues, there is a second mistake that many rich investors will soon make. Another survey of wealthy U.S. investors uncovered that a large percentage of investors with investment assets of over a million do not employ any type of investment advisor but plan to do so soon giving the increasingly gloomy nature of the U.S. stock markets. To that, this is what I have to say. Making money in difficult markets is ten times more difficult than making money in bull markets. If investors believe that it will be increasingly more difficult to make money in U.S. stock markets, but yet top investment firms in the U.S. continue to preach that more than half of your portfolio should be in U.S. stocks (mostly to cover their respective firms inadequate coverage of emerging markets), how is the hiring one of these men possibly going to improve these investors future performance outlook?

But there is an EXTREMELY important distinction to be made here. What Ive written above applies to the behavior and mindset of some of the richest people in America, but not THE very richest people in America. The very richest people in America, those you might categorize as the worlds ultra-rich, possess a very different mindset and behavior set than those that are just rich. The ultra-rich have positioned their portfolios extremely differently from how the rich people discussed above have positioned their portfolios. The reason why articles regarding their behavior and investment decisions are virtually non-existent is because they dont grant interviews and they dont want people to know what they are doing. But Ive investigated what they are doing, and trust me, it is nothing remotely similar to the behavior of wealthy investors described by Northern Trust and other investment firms.

If you would like to find out why the ultra-rich always manage their own money or are able to find the 1 in a million consultant truly capable of providing them the returns they desire, consult our resource of 101 Reasons Why Managing Your Own Money is the Only Way to Build Wealth. Even if the ultra-wealthy have someone managing their money for them, the only way they were capable of finding this 1 in a million financial consultant was due to the fact that if they had to, they could manage their own money successfully as well. Only by first fully understanding the most successful investment strategies themselves were they able to identify an advisor capable of employing similar strategies. However, a great majority of ultra-wealthy continue to handle and make their own investment decisions. And that is precisely why they are among the elite.

This article may be freely reprinted on another website as long as it is not modified, changed, or altered in any way and as long as the below author byline is included along with the active hyperlink exactly as is.

J.S. Kim is the Managing Director of SmartKnowledgeU. He has over thirteen years of experience in finance and financial services, and has earned a BA in Neurobiology from the University of Pennsylvania, a Master in Public Affairs from the University of Texas at Austin, and an MBA with a concentration in finance from the McCombs Business School, University of Texas at Austin. He is the inventor of the revolutionary MoneyPing investment strategies, a novel approach to learn how to build wealth, not just dreams.

To learn more about how to achieve financial freedom, and investment ideas to dramatically decrease risk and intelligently increase the probabilities of 25% or higher annual returns, click the following link Advanced Wealth Planning Techniques and Achieve Financial Freedom Ideas

Currency Trading For Beginners (Forex)

Forex market is expanding to new traders due to the advancements in communication technologies. Beginners can now learn 'the art and science' of Forex currency trading with a simple mouse click and can increase their income as well. What is needed is to follow certain basic rules; otherwise it may involve a potential risk of loss.

Beginners in Forex trading must start with a systematic study of the working principles. You must remember that forex trading is different from a stock market in many ways. The currency deals are always done in pairs like the USD/Euro or the USD/GBP. The study includes identifying the direction and movement of the currency before buying or selling so that you can make profit while the price going down as well as up. So if the currency behaves as per the prediction, you gain. The trick, therefore, lies in analyzing trends and patterns.

Learning forex currency trading for beginners is easy: You need an Internet connected PC and a dedicated schedule for learning. The more time and effort you put into it, easier it becomes for you to learn. As a beginner in learning forex trading, you do not even need to be familiar with the individual currency. But with your power of analyzing patterns, keen power of observation in studying trends and making them work in your favor, you can master the trade within a short spell!

A beginner interested in forex currency trading can perform almost every transaction online. To succeed at currency trading at the beginning, you need discipline, dedication and patience. The most appealing aspect of the forex trading is the financial freedom you can enjoy with very minimal effort.

As a beginner in forex currency trading, you should realize that it is not an income but an investment. Therefore, knowing the right time to invest is a key to success. Try to learn the trading strategies with your own research from various sources -- electronic and conventional. It is also advisable to start investing with little amounts till the time you achieve the required level of confidence. You as a beginner must master the ins and outs of a risk management strategy.

The beginners in forex currency trading can make use of several online tools, which can make their trading profitable. Some forex trading software can help you analyze market conditions; and guide you in making the decisions about the right time for investment. Identifying an effective trading system, therefore, is another major issue. You must be careful to check that the online brokerage company selling you the right trading system, which is backed by authentic technical as well as fundamental analysis and not on the basis of market rumors.

For more information trading currencies online please visit Forex Currency Trading for Beginners

The Credit Crunch and the Stock Investor (You)

The past four weeks have been a doozy. No sooner did the Dow set an all-time record on July 19 above 14,000 than the markets went into a volatile tailspin. The Dow has had several days of 200-300 point moves. Overall the market is down about 6%-7% in the month since July 19.

Whats the best thing to do right now?

First, the background facts:

The tailspin was begun by sub-prime mortgage lending. Many such loans were defaulted. It is fair to say that the mortgage market went into a bubble, and that the bubble is now deflating or collapsing.

The sub-prime mortgage mess began a chain reaction that spread through the credit markets and out into the stock market.

(1) Sub-prime mortgages were bundled into packages (securitized) and sold to hedge funds, banks, and other investors. Hedge funds and financial investors not only purchased these securities, but did so with high leverage: As much as 70% (or more) debt. As mortgagors defaulted on loans, the collateral supporting the mortgage-backed securities collapsed.

(2) Thousands of variable-rate mortgages will reset to higher interest rates over the next few years. As they reset, more owners will default.

(3) The difficulties in mortgages spread to other credit markets. Bank loans to hedge funds were themselves sub-prime, although nobody called them that. Several hedge funds ran into debt crises of their own, and others will follow.

(4) The countrys largest mortgage lender, Countrywide Financial, veered near bankruptcy until it tapped a massive credit line to stay in business. Smaller lenders have failed. Some others will fail, including possibly Countrywide itself.

(5) The problem has spilled over into the stock market via several paths.
(a) Margin calls have gone out. Forced to raise cash, hedge funds and others have been forced to sell stocks.
(b) Many investors have panicked, pulling their money out of the stock market. Financial stocks have been particularly hard hit.
(c) Private equity deals are grinding to a halt, as the money to finance them becomes unavailable. Private buy-outs helped fuel the market run-up earlier in the year. That propulsion is over.

National banks around the world have been injecting massive amounts of money into the financial system to stave off panic and illiquidity. The Fed has done so several times.

On Friday August 17, the Fed surprised by lowering its discount rate (for direct loans to banks) by 0.5% to 5.75%, which is another way of adding money to the economy.

But so far, the Fed has not lowered the Federal Funds rate, the one that impacts most other interest rates and serves as a benchmark for millions of consumer and business loans. The Fed has kept that rate at 5.25% for over a year. Many economists are expecting the Fed to lower the Federal Funds rate to further ease the economy. But the Fed has been reluctant to touch it, as it tries to keep inflation to about 2% or less.

Pundits, economists, and investors are split about the big-picture importance of the credit crunch. (1) Some maintain a not too worried stance, pointing out that the mortgage market is a tiny fraction of GDP, and that even in a worst-case scenario of massive defaults, the economic impact will be smallmuch less than the savings-and-loan crisis of the 1980s. They feel that the markets will work the problems out on their own. (2) Others feel that the crisis is going to get much worse, last much longer, and affect a wide swath of the economy. They say that we dont yet know the depth of the crisis, how many huge sub-prime loans banks have in their portfolios, how tight credit may really get as lenders pull in their horns, nor how the entire economy is going to be affected.

Many stocks of excellent companies, because of the downturn, are at their lowest valuations in years.

Economic fundamentals are fine. The just-ending earnings season showed strong results. Many excellent companies are doing well, growing in a healthy fashion, depend little on debt, and have no weaknesses on their balance sheets.

What does this all mean to the average individual investor? Is it time to be greedy or fearful? Is it time to protect against further losses by selling stocks, or is it time to purchase first-class companies at rock-bottom prices? Are the past few weeks the beginning of a bear market, or just a correction? Will the Fed ride to the rescue with the right moves, or will they screw it up?

For the stock investor, what are the risks right now? Id say these are the top three:

1.The credit problem, already a crisis, may turn into a catastrophe. There are undoubtedly many dangerous loans out there that we dont know about yet, and the credit markets may seize up for many months.

2.The economy will tip into recession. Companies will fall not only in stock price but in actual performance.

3.The Fed will make the wrong moves, or it will wait too long to make the right moves.

Risks usually have counterparts: potential rewards. The top three most likely opportunities:

1.The worst of the credit crunch is already over. The credit machinery of the economy will emerge stronger, as lenders reinstitute old-fashioned sound lending standards, to the long-run benefit of all.

2.The Fed will make the right moves at the right times. The economy will continue growing. There will be no recession.

3.Investors will take advantage of the bargain prices in stocks, accepting inevitable short-term volatility for a while until the market settles down. They will do this believing that in a few months or a year, the market will return the prices of excellent companies to rational levels.

I believe that the second listthe list of opportunitiesis more likely to occur than the first list, although that is certainly not a slam dunk. Reasons:

Investors are likely to recognize that the credit crisis is ultimately limited in size, and that overall the economy is in good shape.

The low valuations on many excellent companies will prove compelling and prevail over the fear that the credit crisis will ruin the economy.

By its injections of money into the economy and by its rate-lowering action, the Fed has signaled recognition of the importance of maintaining real liquidity in the economy and the markets.

The credit crunch is already reversing, what with the Feds action Friday, the shuttering of some hedge funds with the worst difficulties, the reinstitution by banks of more traditional and conservative lending standards, and so on.

Heres what we are likely to see over the next six months:

More revelations of serious credit problems in various areas.

More hedge funds will collapse. Some banks and financial institutions will be revealed to have more exposure to worthless credit assets than previously thought. The stocks of these companies will fare poorly.

Commercial and consumer lending standards will become tighter. Cash-rich companies (who have no need for credit) will benefit in comparison to companies which need debt to operate.

Investor sentiment will yo-yo as different revelations come to light. Therefore, the stock market will remain very volatile for a while longer. Up and down days of 200+ points on the Dow will be fairly common.

The Fed may or may not lower the Federal Funds rate. They will continue to take other actions to insure liquidity in the economy.

Investors will be all over the map on whether this is a time to be fearful or greedy, but on balance, the tilt will be towards seeing this as a buying opportunity. As a result, the stock market will be higher in six months than it is now, perhaps back to its July 19 level if not higher.

Action steps:

1.To the extent you have cash to invest, look for excellent companies with strong balance sheets.

2.If you use sell stops, either set them wider than normal, or dont set them at all, putting your faith instead in the foregoing analysis. The wider sell-stops will allow room for volatility.

3.Because the conclusions above are not slam dunks, limit your stock investments to or 2/3 of your available stock money. Neither be fully invested nor flee the market.

Dave Van Knapp is the author of Sensible Stock Investing: How to Pick, Value, and Manage Stocks. Click on this link to go directly to the book's page on Amazon.com: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/059539342X/sr=1-1/qid=1155381420/ref=sr_1_1/002-5852738-5260830?ie=UTF8&s=books . Or click on this link to learn more about the book and its sytematic approach to investing specifically designed for individual investors: http://www.SensibleStocks.com

Always Use Protection! Sell-Stops for Safe Investing

For most individuals, whether to sell a stock is the hardest decision in stock investing.

It sounds simple at first: Sell your losers and let your winners run. Sure, obviously. But how do you know which stocks are your future long-term winners and losers? More to the point, how do you tell the differenceright nowbetween a stock that is only on a short-term losing streak as opposed to one which is destined to be a long term loser?

Clearly, its easy to list your winners and losers as of right now. But thats not what this particular decision is about. This is about future eventsunknowable by definition. Even if your stock is falling in price, you dont want prematurely to decide that you made a mistake buying it or that its prospects have reversed from bright to dim. It may not be a loser at all. It just may have hit a bad patch. Your original positive outlook on the company and its stock may be correct, and the optimum decision may be to give the stock more time to reach its profitable destination. A stock in a short-term stall can become a long-term winner.

On the other hand, we all know Rule #1 of investing: Dont lose. So you cant wait forever to make your decision when a stocks price keeps falling.

Every Sensible Stock Investor wants to take a strategicnot whimsicalapproach to making sell decisions. You want to contain losses and sidestep risks.

The trailing sell-stop order is a very effective tool for sticking to a strategic approach. Lets make sure we understand what this order is. Then well talk about how to use them.

A trailing sell-stop orderwhich is a standard type of order with all brokerageshas these characteristics:

It is a sell order with a condition attached. You attach it. When the condition is satisfied, the order to sell is executedwhether you are at work, in the bathroom, on vacation, or wherever.

The condition is the ''stop'' price. That is the price you pre-select to trigger the sell order. If the stocks price falls to or through that point, the sell order is executed. You pre-select the trigger price when you are thinking objectively and strategically, not in the heat of a fast-moving stock price.

It is a trailing order. Over time, as the price of your stock moves up, you reset the trigger price a little highersay once per week. That way, the stop price trails along behind the stocks actual price, protecting you on the downside while not limiting your upside.

It is a standing order. That means it just sits there until (1) it is executed, (2) it expires, (3) you change it, or (4) you remove it.

Of course if the stocks price is going down, you leave the existing stop price alone. The whole idea is that it is there to protect you against losses. It does not take long to review and reset all the stop prices in a small portfoliomaybe a minute per stock online.

So trailing sell-stops are used to limit losses from your purchase price or to lock in the gains of your stocks as they advance. A trailing stop order gets you out if the stock suddenly starts to tumble. It works like a ratchet, letting your stock price move up but not down past the trigger price you have selected.

I follow one hard-and-fast rule: Sell a new purchase before losing 10 percent in it. So as soon as I purchase a stock, I enter a sell-stop order too, usually at 8 percent less than I paid for it.

After a stock gains 10 percent for you, your stop price will have reached what you paid for it, so you will never lose money on that stock. After that hurdle has been cleared, how do you set the stop price? The goal is to give the stock enough room for normal volatility, while at the same time being restrictive enough so as not to let profits escape if the stock starts to go backwards.

There are two main methods to set stop prices. First, you can set the stop price as a percentage below todays price (but never below what you paid once the stop price has reached your purchase price). I use the percentage approach most of the time. My default percentage is 15 percent, although I may change that (up or down) in certain situations.

I might use a looser stop (such as 20 or even 25 percent) for a blue chip company that I really expect to hold for a long time. This would typically be a company that has a fat dividend yield.

I usually use 10 percent if the stock is an ETF (exchange-traded fund). This is because funds are typically less volatile than company stocks, so they dont need as much wiggle room.

And I might use a stop as low as 2 percent or 3 percent for a stock that I have decided to sell. The tight stop price lets me squeeze out any unexpected upside that the stock may have left in it, but it still gets me out with negligible damage if the stock falls at all.

The second way to set the stop price is to examine the stocks chart for the past year or so. You may see that while overall the stock has been rising, some significant leaps and falls are part of its normal behavior. The dips may exceed any reasonable percentage sell-stop that you would normally set. But you dont want to sell the stock on such dips, because you can see that the overall trend has been upward, and you believe that it will be continue to be that way.

In that case, what I usually do is have the charting software (available on most financial websites) draw the stocks moving average line (MA). Try MAs between 50 and 200 days. What you might discover is that although the stock has its ups and downs, it essentially never falls below one of those moving average linesit always seems to bounce off the MA line and head back up. If thats the case, use that MA as the stop price.

This has worked perfectly for me with Chicago Mercantile Holdings (CME). Viewed through a wide-angle lens, the stock has done nothing but go up since it went public a few years ago. But viewed up close, it can be volatile. A couple of times I purchased it, only to have it trigger my stop order before too long. Then I made the observation that the stock never seemed to drop below its 200-day MA. So now I use that for my stop price. As the stock bounces around, the actual percentage of the stop price below the actual price varies. But I dont care. By using that approach, Ive held one block of shares without interruption since February 2006, and it is up 43 percentnearly 50 percent on an annual basis. CME is one of my all-time favorite stocks. The Merc has an exceptional business model, generates cash faster than McDonalds makes burgers, and has rewarded its shareholders handsomely. I am protected to the downside on a fairly volatile stock. Just as with percentage-based stops, I reset the stop price once a week. I just look up the current 200-day MA, and thats my stop price.

If you employ trailing sell-stop orders, you will find from time to time that you are stopped out of a stock that, as things turn out, you would have been better off just hanging on to. But thats OK. Cutting losses and preserving gains are so important to overall success that the risk of getting stopped out is preferable to the risk of taking a large loss. And, if a stop-out proves to be a mistake, you can reverse it. As the situation clarifies, nothing prevents you from repurchasing the stock.

Dave Van Knapp is the author of Sensible Stock Investing: How to Pick, Value, and Manage Stocks.

This guide for individual investors goes into more depth on trailing sell-stops, as well as other aspects of managing a stock portfolio. The book has a perfect 5-star reader rating on Amazon.com.

Click here to learn more about the book and the Sensible Stock Investing methodology: http://www.SensibleStocks.com

Learn Forex With Forex Training Videos

I came across a brand new forex video course, this one is not like many others since it includes videos, in addition to ebooks. Actually this course includes video tutorials, ebooks, softwares, mentoring from a professional trader, free signals and more. Doesn't that sound good ? I am going to tell you what you will get when you purchase the package.

You will get access to a members area to download the full package. Concerning the forex video courses, there are 28 online videos. You can see a sample on the website. It shows a trade strategy that brings 973 pips in about a week. Of course you don't make this kind of profit every week but this is easy to see how powerful is the strategy.

There are 5 full proven and profitable strategies in this package. Not just one.

You don't only get the video courses. There are much more informations about the strategies and the forex market in downloadable ebooks. You will find tools to help you analyze the market. You will learn the basics, the fundamental analysis, the technical analysis, the trading psychology and the most advanced strategies to pull in big profits in your account.

I have always been convinced that there are traders that know more than others. Of course their day job is forex trading, they do it all day. But there are also people that simply know good systems and make profit every day just following a plan. Their strategies are kept for themselves, the author decided to reveal some of them. And he does it well, and more than revealing his techniques, he and his professional team will mentor you, for free.

Having a mentor for free is the real deal of this package. Imagine all your questions being answered, you will never get stuck and always have a follow up after your purchase.

The creator also offers an additional members with more content. When you will have. New informations, new charts, new strategies, new tools. The package is regularly updated and updates are free ! You are even added to a VIP list and be able to see live examples of trades.

But my favorite bonus is a "one free month of Forex signals". If you already know how to execute a trade this is simply amazing. You know, signals tell you exact entry and exit point of a trade, for a specific pair. You know what pair to trade, when to enter a trade and where you take your profit. Just follow the signals.

This course is really new and I feel not so many people know about it. Anyway this is a perfect package for beginners there is so much information that you can't really go wrong. Plus, the free mentoring, and the free month of forex signals are worth enough the price ($97).

Learn Forex at ForexBo.com and find more about the Forex training videos.

Job Search - "Market Timer Needed"

Requirements For The Position

Have you ever wondered what the job requirements would be for the position of "Market Timer?" Assuming such a position existed, would you be qualified for it?

Such requirements would obviously be the same as those needed for anyone to successfully time the markets.

Let's see... what would the ad look like?

"MARKET TIMER NEEDED"

Candidates must be able to go against the prevailing opinion.

Candidates must be able to take a bullish position when everyone is bearish, and take a bearish position when everyone is bullish.

Candidates must be independent and self-assured. They don't worry about how they are doing compared with other investors.

Candidates must be able to accept that sometimes their investments will underperform the market, knowing that over time, they will outperform the market.

Candidates must be able to accept that their timing will require them to make frequent trades that may seem like mistakes, and a string of successive small losses won't drive them up the wall.

Candidates must be able to adopt a strategy for the long haul and stick with it, even when at times it is discouraging.

Candidates must be able to able to obey buy and sell signals, which often are issued against the prevailing sentiment.

Candidates must be able to ignore the mass media, which raise emotions and thus increase the risk of not executing a trade. It is often the trade that is hardest to take, that winds up being the most profitable.

Candidates must be decisive and willing to move at a moment's notice, without second-guessing, when a timing system calls for buying or selling.

Candidates must be willing to watch their investments every business day without fail.

What Each And Every One Of Us Face

Okay.... maybe it is not a job that we would see advertised anywhere. But the job requirements tell us a great deal about what each and every one of us face as market timers.

Market timers face a constant psychological battle. Prevailing sentiment, not to mention our next door neighbor, is constantly telling us to cave in and go with the majority. There is comfort in following the majority, at least for awhile.

But timers must walk alone. They can never give in to these pressures because just when the urge is greatest, the next profitable trend is launched. We must be on board. No trade can be missed.

Against The Herd

Yes... sometimes the majority are right, especially during a long trend. But never forget that the majority are wrong at market tops as well as market bottoms, when volume swells and everyone is moving in the same direction with herd-like mentality.

As market timers, we go against the herd. It may be tough at times, but we know that the profits realized over the years are well worth the battle.

Forex: Money Management Principles

Trade With Sufficient Captial

One of the worst blunders that forex traders can make is attempting to trade without sufficient capital.

The trader with limited capital not only will be a worried trader, always looking to minimize losses beyond the point of realistic trading, but he will also frequently be taken out of the trading game before he can realize any sense of success trading the method(s) or patterns.

Exercise Discipline

Discipline is probably one of the most overused words in forex trading education. However, despite the clich, discipline continues to be the most important behaviour one can master to become a profitable trader. Discipline is the ability to plan your work and work your plan.

Its the ability to give your trade the time to develop without hastily taking yourself out of the market simply because you are uncomfortable with risk. Discipline is also the ability to continue to trade the methods and patterns even after youve suffered losses. Do your best to cultivate the degree of discipline required to be a world-class trader.

Employ Risk-to-Reward Ratios

The following shows you possible risk-to reward ratios, and the win ratios required to break even in a trading system.

Risk-to-Reward Ratio (in pips)and Win Ratio Required to Break Even(%)

40/20 (2 to 1) = 67%, 40/40 (1 to1) = 50%, 40/60 (1 to 1.5) = 40%,
40/80 (1 to 2) = 33.5%,
60/20 (3 to 1) = 75%,
60/60 (1 to 1) = 50%,
60 /90 (1 to 1.5) = 40%,
60/120 (1 to 2) = 33.5%

Important Note

Never risk more pips on a trade then you plan to make. It doesnt make sense to risk 100 pips in order to make only 10. Why? See below example.

Profit taking level (pips): 10
Stop used or pips at risk: 100

You win 10 times which makes 100 winning pips. You ONLY lose once and have to give back all profits!!!

This type of trading makes no sense and you will lose on the long term guaranteed!

Toby Smitz - Daily Operations
Forex Trading with free education

Major Advantages to Trading Forex

When most investors hear the word forex, the words that flash through their brain are risky, complicated, and tiny profit margins. This is because the information on currency trading isn't as available and easy to access as the stock market. A stock investor just needs to pick up the Wall Street Journal or turn on CNBC to instantly see what's new and exciting. When you're a stock investor, you can talk to your friends, neighbors, and co-workers about what you're buying, share tips, and brag about your profits. Everyone is familiar with the stock market. Forex is a different beast. To find information, you have to turn to the internet or privately run newsletters. You can't talk about forex with anyone in your everyday life because they won't understand the lingo and will have no idea what you're talking about. It's a shame, because our game has some major advantages over stock trading. Maybe if forex information was more public, the average investor would realize the following 5 things to be true.

One thing that most people doesn't realize is that there is no trading commission involved in currency trading. When you're trading stocks frequently, even if it's done online at $20 a pop, the fees start eating into your profits. If you're trading options, you're not only paying a commission on the trade, but you're also paying additional fees per contract. Fortunately for forex investors, the only retail transaction cost is the bid/ask spread which is usually less than 5 pips (0.05%).

Secondly, the currency market is open 24 hours a day, 5 days per week. Unlike the stock exchange, which is only active between the opening and closing bells, you can trade forex first thing in the morning or in the wee hours of the night. There are people all around the world trading at all hours, so a trader can take advantage of any market condition at any time.

Another big benefit to the foreign exchange is the huge leverage opportunity. Leverage, also called margin, is when you borrow your broker's money and add it to your own capital in order to make a larger investment. In the stock market, you have to pass your brokers strict guidelines to be approved for a margin account, and if you do, you'll get a maximum of 2:1 (which means if you invest $10,000, you can borrow $10,000). In forex, a ratio of up to 400 is considered normal. If you use that massive amount of leverage properly and hit some big winners, you can make substantial money in short periods of time. Of course, the opposite is true as well. You can lose substantial money very quickly also. But you can't get a better opportunity to use other people's money.

A fourth advantage to currency trading is it's size. Because the forex market is so huge and has so many traders active at all times, no single investor can corner the market. In the stock market, each equity issue has a finite amount of outstanding shares. For many small cap companies, a large investor could amass a large percentage of those outstanding shares, and because of the low liquidity, their choice to buy, sell, or hold will have drastic effects on the price of that particular stock. With currency, no single investor, not even a central bank, can accumulate a controlling amount of something like the dollar, pound, or franc.

The last great characteristic of the forex that we'll discuss in this article is the never ending bull market. Forex is a zero sum game. A gain is only made when one currency rises in value in relation to another currency. So this means that if one currency is going down, another is going up. In the stock market, when a bear market hits, the vast majority of stocks are all going down. If Microsoft drops 5 points, that certainly doesn't mean that GE went up 5 points. Sure, you can short stocks in a declining market, but the average investor isn't too keen on the unlimited downside risk and probably doesn't even have the margin to be able to make the trade. Just remember that something is always guaranteed to go up in the currency market.

There are dozens of other reasons why the forex is one of the best playing fields in the investment world. If you are an investor, do some research and see for yourself. Open up a demo trading account at one of the several online forex brokers and see how you do. You might just find that it blows the stock market out of the water.

This article is just a small piece of the free Forex Trading Course at forexgameplan.com Go learn about this incredible market and sign up today while the 30 day course is still free.

Forex Investing and Trading for Newcomers

The foreign exchange market, or forex market, is becoming increasingly popular in a wide variety of applications. Everyone knows that countries have currencies and they are traded against one another, but few realize the economic significance of these markets in their daily lives, and also there are many myths and rumors surrounding the forex market. In addition, few realize how to get involved in the forex market, and become discouraged when getting the wrong answers.

The forex market by nature is de-centralized because there is no official currency exchange such as for equities or commodities. On some exchanges, such as the CBOT, forex futures are traded as commodity contracts. However there is nothing stopping any bank from trading currency with another bank, with the CBOT, or with retail customers. There are no rules or regulations, and thus, there are many different opinions and packaging surrounding forex markets that are always disputed. The regulators in the US markets, such as the NFA, have stepped into take action involving forex trading, and provide limited rules to follow. It should be noted however that these regulators are involved only when you accept funds from the public. If you are a bank and have no customers, there are no regulations to follow regarding how to trade currency. The regulators are concerned only how you raise money from the public. Forex strategy Many people think that to trade currency you need to evaluate a countries economic performance, interest rate policy, and other macro-economic and geopolitical factors. While this no doubt influences the forex market, it is no longer the base of many traders strategies. A new kind of trading is quickly evolving, based on mathematical analysis of prices, called indicators. If you have ever traded you are probably aware of common indicators such as RSI, MACD, Moving Averages, and Bollinger Bands. But programmers have expanded on this to create their own custom indicators, and some strategies monitor a plethora of indicators creating a super-indicator, which generates buy / sell signals. These strategies are very effective because traders can do an extensive amount of testing before trading live money on them. Finally, when live money is traded and it has a track record, the system can be easily replicated.

One popular platform, Meta Trader, allows anyone to download a demo version of their software which is 100% free. There are nearly 200 brokers in the world using this software platform, so if you find a technique which is working, you can open an account at one of these brokers and implement it with few problems. That means also that a programmer can code a strategy and use it at any of the brokers using Meta Trader platform. Strategies are compiled in files called Expert Advisors and can be implemented by clients without programmer or trader intervention. Due to the lack of restrictions and cost, there is a growing international community working on strategies for trading. Of course most of these people are amateurs, but not all of them. And in this case, being an amateur can be an advantage, because you have time to dedicate to the strategy (which requires a high degree of concentration) and possibly money to invest. Also you do not have rules imposed on you by a company or a market; it is a free development environment.

A further extension to these types of strategies and their implementation is seen in technology called Trade Robot. The robot collects buy / sell signals from hundreds of providers, and creates a signal database which includes auditing and tracking. After years of performance data, the robot knows what systems are profitable, and specific trade statistics such as length of trades typically seen by a system, and drawdown ratios. A drawdown is the calculation of loss when an account is losing. No strategy is perfect, even the best are subject to drawdowns, so when the sophisticated investor evaluates a system he is concerned less about absolute returns and more about drawdowns. For example if a system makes 200% with a 50% drawdown that means you are risking 50% of your capital to achieve a 200% return. Usually high yielding systems are very risky and have deep drawdowns, sometimes as much as 20% or more. What is a pip?

In forex a pip is the smallest unit of measurement. In the EUR/USD 1 pip =$1 on a 10k contract. If the EUR/USD is 1.3448 the 8 represents 8 pips, if the EUR/USD moves from 1.3448 to 1.3449 that would be a 1 pip move. The value of 1 pip depends on the size of contract traded and the base currency, in this case USD. EUR/USD means that 1 Euro = 1.3448 USD. As this rate changes, your open position will have a profit or loss. How does one get into forex?

Anyone who is new into forex should find someone in the profession who they can trust and can consult with. It is a small world and a trader likely knows a good broker and so on. We do not recommend investing a large amount of money into an account that you will trade, until you have learned the forex market well. There is no reason to drop your account by 50% as a learning curve open a managed account. There are many successful forex managed programs that you can invest in while you learn. Then when you are ready to trade for yourself (if you want to) then open a mini-account for self-trading and leave money management to the pros. Of course there is a high degree of risk involved in any forex account, but in evaluating the best placement of the capital of a novice investor in the forex arena, it is best placed with someone with experience and track record. Novice mistakes

If you are new to forex, there are many well produced educational courses you can take which will explain the details of forex trading and investing. However taking one of these courses will not make you an expert, nor will it give you the experience you need to trade as well or better than a seasoned veteran. It is recommended that while you are learning, you work with professionals who can guide you through initial stages of forex. If you dont want to know the details, thats fine too, but you should understand the nature of the market before even investing. Forex is a unique market and there are many features of forex investing that are not available in other markets, such as:
You need only $1 to open a forex trading account at some brokers
Many brokers will allow traders as much as 400:1 leverage, meaning with only $1,000 in your account you could trade up to $400,000 in currency!
Forex is available in many shapes and sizes, there are few standards for trading and software
The forex market is the most liquid in the world, with over $3 Trillion USD exchanged daily Accounts and Brokers

A forex trading account is much like other types of accounts you may find at stock brokers or commodity brokers. Usually there are no commissions involved in forex trading, as brokers are compensated through the bid/ask spread. Although brokers offer tight spreads on forex contracts, as little as 3 pips on the EUR/USD for example, with large volume that can add up to substantial revenue for the broker.

A managed account is structurally the same as a self-traded account, except clients sign a Limited Power of Attorney giving a professional money manager access to trade their account. Traders have trading authority only, they cannot deposit and withdraw funds. The account is always in the name of the client, never give funds to a non-registered individual. Any professional would never accept client funds directly, funds are always handled by registered institution. Common misconceptions

When you are investing in forex funds are not leaving the country! You are trading on the interbank market (or off-exchange market) in either case, brokers settle their aggregate positions end of day in a similar method to stock exchanges, debiting and crediting profit and loss to client accounts. It is not as if your funds are being wired out of the country and back.

The forex markets are some of the most technologically sophisticated in the world due to their simplicity. In forex there are less issues relating to execution, auditing, and clearing, which enable the software to be designed small and simple. For trading for profit, or for designing automated trading systems, forex is clearly the superior market.

Elite E Services
http://www.eliteeservices.net
http://www.elitefxsystems.com

Forex Trading and Pricing Explained

I received the following question from one of my list members today:

"... you referred to the currency exchange cash market and the fact that this is basically a market between banks across countries. Does this mean that, for example, the EURO/USD exchange rate is set between the Federal Reserve and the ECB? Is that how a price is established without the benefit of any trading on any listed exchange anywhere else? Thanks for the brief education on this particular point." - Stan Z.

The forex spot market is primarily an "interbank" market. That means the majority of the trading volume is done bank-to-bank such as between Citibank and Goldman Sachs, for example. This trading is generally done on behalf of banking customers such as multinational corporations, though the banks also trade with each other both to hedge their currency exposure and to take on trading positions.

This sort of market structure is the same as the one for most cash market government debt trading, such as that for US Treasury Bonds and the like. You can think of it like the over-the-counter market for stocks. Those trades don't go through an exchange, but are done directly broker-to-broker.

In both forex and fixed income there are big players like hedge funds that take part along with the commercial and investment banks. The world's central banks are also major participants at this level in their attempts to influence exchange rates (forex) and/or interest rates (fixed income).

The transaction sizes in the interbank market are large - generally $5 million and up. Obviously, the average individual trader is not going to be trading anywhere near that big. That's where the online brokers and forex dealers come in to play. They allow small traders to do transactions in significantly lower amounts. In fact, there is at least one which will do trades as small as $1.

Here is where some folks get a bit nervous. Many of these forex dealers actually act as market makers with their clientele. By that I mean they take the other side of the trades that are done by their customers. This is something which can sometimes happen in the stock market as well, especially with OTC stocks. The concern that folks have with this is the implied conflict of interest in terms of price execution that creates. Is a dealer who will be taking the other side of your trade going to be acting in your best interest when you put on a trade?

While it may be true that some unscrupulous dealers may take advantage of their customers in that way, I am quite confident that most of them are not acting against their customers. They simply provide liquidity to the market and earn the spread to do so. When they have an excessive exposure to any particular currency, they offset it by hedging in the interbank market or with another dealer. That's basically the same as a floor trader on any exchange.

Getting to the question of how prices get set, the market does that, not the central banks. Each individual bank and dealer is actually setting its own price. That might sound a bit strange in that it would create different rates all over the place. The fact of the matter is, however, that prices between dealers and banks are almost always going to be very, very close. There are services such as Reuters where dealer prices are aggregated and presented in data feeds, allowing everyone to know the current (and historical) market rates. Arbitrage trading keeps dealers from quoting prices too far away from each other.

There is also trading in the futures market, and the relatively new currency exchange traded funds (ETFs). The activity there, while only a small fraction of the global market volume, also contributes to keeping prices in line across the board.

John Forman is author of The Essentials of Trading (Wiley - April 2006), and a near 20 year veteran of trading and analyzing the markets. For more information on forex trading, check out John's free forex guide which will answer your questions about the currency market.

British Pound - Shorting Opportunity Bears Poised To Take Currency Lower?

In two previous articles have looked at the potential for the British Pound from the sort side and it looks just about set to fall lets take a look at the bearish argument and why it is a low risk high reward trading opportunity.

To look at this trade you will need a chart service with the indicators were going to look at and a good one is futuresource.com so lets take a look.

This report is written at 9AM CET on Tuesday 24th July.

This trade is against the general consensus and has the opportunity to take advantage of a washout of specs, for a quick profit with low risk.

The first starting point is the psychology of the market and its obvious that the currency is extremely bullish - in fact too bullish.

The Net Traders positions show that speculators hold a record number of longs and the % bullish (a poll of people in the market who have an opinion on the currency) shows that we are at bullish extreme.

With this market it appears that most of the short term bullish news is factored in and a break is anticipated, to correct the overbought position.

Now lets look at the chart and indicators.

Pull up the chart and the following indicators stochastic Relative Strength Index, RSI and Bollinger Band

The RSI - Is in overbought territory and we sold on waning of momentum after first high (80.00 level) and we are now seeing a push higher again.

We would expect a double top on the RSI at 80.00 (also see the high in RSI Dec 2006) so this represents firm resistance.

The stochastic After pointing down after RSI made high and dropped.

Now its trying to move to the upside again, but should turn down if you were looking at new positions you would wait for this and RSI to give you the trade and a cross of the stochastic at the same time. were in already so we will wait.

Our stop would be on a close basis 2.07.

We would expect the currency to lose momentum here and the speculators to be washed out and see prices go to target the middle of the Bollinger band.

The currency is over bought and the set up looks a good one to focus on from a bearish point of view.

Right or wrong, this is good risk reward trade and has solid reasons for looking at the short side after great run to the upside the market is now due a shakeout to correct the over bought situation.

GRAB 3 X FREE TRADER & FREE TRADER PROFITS NEWSLETTER

More on becoming a profitable trader some critical FREE Trader PDF's and more FREE Forex Education visit our website at http://www.net-planet.org/index.html

Wall Street to Main Street: News, Views and Commentary: May 26, 2006

Its Friday May 26, 2006, and its the last day of the trading week and the beginning of a three-day weekend for the market. First and foremost we want to remind everyone to lower their flags to half-staff in memory of the soldiers that have fallen in battle to keep the United States of America free. We also want to send our thoughts out to all the families of fallen soldiers of the most recent war that is taking place in Iraq.

Now lets get down to business, history was made yesterday and some justice was served in a Texas Courtroom, as Ken Lay and Jeff Skilling were found guilty. This is the pair that single handedly forced the Sarbanes-Oxley Act or SOX to be established following the collapse of Enron that left many people without pensions to fall back on. So this is a little retribution as the pair could spend the rest of their lives in prison. They will appeal to verdict but it may do them no good, as they will just delay the inevitable a few more months or so. I dont think that anyone was really shocked by the verdict but the families of the defendants, as Lay and Skilling pleaded the It Wasnt Me defense. So lets hope that they are supplied with soap on a rope.

Now what this pair did is a far cry from a stock options issuance, but the stock options probe still continues and is growing. There are companies being dragged into this probe that are actually good companies and have done well for investors, companies such as UnitedHealth (NYSE: UNH) and Power Integrations (NASDAQ: POWI) which we happen to like but this probe is a dark cloud over both of these companies. Now what all of this scrutiny may actually do is deter good CEOs from running public companies and push them into the private sectors.

The NAMC Newswires Wall Street to Main Street segment in its entirety is only available to subscribers. Dont miss out and Keep in mind that all subscriptions are free and will remain that way. All that you need to do is go to www.namcnewswire.com and add your email address to receive the full segments. We value your privacy and all email addresses are only used for NAMC related items and not shared with any third parties. Your subscription allows you to participate in the newly added investor commentary, this is where we will be giving the floor to investors each day.

Next weeks investor commentary topic on Wall Street to Main Street will be Gold, Oil and Gas Prices, just chime in and tell us what you think. You can either call us toll free at 888-463-9237 between the hours of 6:30pm and 12am EST weekdays or shoot us out an email using our contact form on our website at www.namcnewswire.com. Make sure to include your name and state in the email or in the audio, you need to be a subscriber to the text version of WSMS to participate. If you as a subscriber have a topic suggestion then we want to hear from you as well, dont be shy, we want WSMS to have more interaction with subscribers

Remember that you can always listen to the NAMC Radio on Streetiq.com, the leader in financial podcast. www.streetiq.com and is also available on iTunes.

As you know, Wall Street to Main Street is issued only once a day and due to numerous requests we found that it may be a good idea to initiate stock alerts via email to our subscribers. So this is the plan, we will begin to alert subscribers of various stock trading opportunities that are presented through out the week. Subscribers will receive a few possibilities; we will show the trend and our thoughts. Because there are times that a stock is in motion during the day and we may know about it but that doesnt do anything for our subscribers.

The NAMC Newswire in the coming weeks will be launching a new Stock Alert program where subscribers to Wall Street to Main Street will also receive

Tid Bits

Michael Dell or Dell, Inc (NASDAQ: DELL) has been awoken, and when you awaken a sleeping giant things do begin to happen. Dell has inked a deal with Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) to have Googles software bundle in millions of new Dell computers coming out of the factory. So this is just another step for Dell as their next step is the retail sector.

Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) has found synergy with eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) as the companies team up in a multiyear partnership that will draw on the strengths of both Yahoo and eBay in online advertising, payments and communications so they can connect with even more Web surfers than they already do. This is a strategic move for both companies as they band together to combat the mighty Google.

As we anticipated Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) beat the competition and has won the bid to build Singapore's first casino this morning. LVS is the largest casino operator in the world and this entry into Singapore is a big step for the company as the profit margins in Asia for casinos are much higher than in the United States so you can expect Las Vegas Sands to easily traded above its 52 week high of $73.14, as investors and institutions begin to realize their future potential. This company could actually bring in more revenue than ever once this casino is completed.

Movers and Shakers

Some major movers in yesterday trading session include Stone Energy (NYSE: SGY) which traded up $9.19 to close at $49.95, the run up is due to a buy out offer from Energy Partners Limited (NYSE: EPL) of $2 billion, Big Lots (NYSE: BLI) traded up $2.80 to close at $16.31 due to a better than expected earnings forecast, this pushed Big Lots to a two-year high, Companhia Energetica (NYSE: CIG) traded up $5.22 to close at $41.05, J2 Global Communications (NASDAQ: JCOM) traded up $3.20 to close at $28.15, eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) traded up $3.68 to close at $33.88, United Natural Foods (NASDAQ: UNFI) traded up $3.31 to close at $33.72 and Geoglobal Resources (AMEX: GCR) which traded up $1.07 to close at $6.32.

Downers

Due to market conditions we found it necessary to make our readers/listeners aware of companies that have been taking a little spanking, some of these stocks may be at a discount but you need to do your research, look at the charts and make sure that nothing fundamentally has changed with the company and whether it is just being dragged by the market or not. There are companies that are actually a slave to the Dow and present buying opportunities.

Some stocks that traded down yesterday include Joy Global (NASDQ: JOYG). Now this is a stock that was ripped apart in yesterdays trading session and it was most certainly overdone. They reported that their profit doubled but that was due to improved margins, something that would not be repeated in future quarters. So the sellers came out in force and smaller investors followed. The stock went as low at $45.77 before institutions rolled in at about 2:30 pm EST give or take a few minutes, and started to buy cheap stock. As an investor you need to seek out oversold situations like Joy Global because as quickly as they come down in a trading session as they could easily bounce back up once the bleeding stops. This is why we are going to initiate stock alerts on the NAMC Newswire for our subscribers..

Here we go again, another situation that was oversold, the China based online game operator and developer, The9 Limited (NASDAQ: NCTY) dropped down $3.55 to close at $23.72, the stock dropped as low as $21.89 before the bleeding began to stop. They missed the mark with their earnings this is what dragged the stock down, So you have either a flood of shorts diving in or a few institutions unloading shares, either way it puts the stock on a downward pattern, investors panic and start to unload and in certain cases forces the stock to break certain levels on the charts which trigger even more selling. But then you have bottom fishers that are looking for situations like this and they usually profit nicely from it.

Now lets look at a company called Libbey (NYSE: LBY) it has been climbing down the mountain after a couple of attempts of making upward movement. The stock broke a one-month low and could fall lower but this isnt a mass sell off, the stock is just gradually breaking down on the chart. It traded down 86 cents to close at $11.38 yesterday and could continue that downward movement as the next support level is in the $9.50 range. At that level you may find an entry point but not before then,

Other stocks that traded down yesterday include Lyon Williams Homes (NYSE: WLS) which traded down $9.05 to close at $122.00, Genesco (NYSE: GCO) traded down $2.00 to close at $36.55, Omnicare (NYSE: OCR) traded down $3.54 to close at $44.46, Blue Coat Systems (NASDAQ: BCSI) traded down $3.91 to close at $15.65, MWI Vetinary Supply (NASDAQ: MWIV) traded down $2.99 to close at $30.19, Books-A-Million (NASDAQ: BAMM) closed down $1.22 to close at $14.13 and KongZhong (NASDAQ: KONG) which traded down 95 cents to close at $11.55.

Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades

Recent Analyst upgrades include Joy Global (NASDAQ: JOYG) the oversold stock was upgraded to a Buy from a Neutral by UBS, Superior Bancorp (NASDAQ: SUPR) was upgraded to a Buy from a Neutral by FTN Midwest Research, Volt Information Sciences (NYSE: VOL) was upgraded to a Buy from a Neutral by Sidoti & Co, Alkermes (NASDAQ: ALKS) was upgraded to a Buy from a Neutral by Pacific Growth Equities, Arrow Electronics (NYSE: ARW) was upgraded to a Buy from a Neutral by Merrill Lynch, Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) was upgraded to a Peer Perform from Under Perform by Bear Stearns, and SkyWest (NASDAQ: SKYW) was given an upgrade to a Strong Buy from an Out Perform by Raymond James.

Recent Analyst downgrades include XM satellite Radio (NASDAQ: XMSR) which was downgraded to a Market Perform from a Out Perform by Barrington Research and to a Under Perform from a Out Perform by Bear Stearns, Blue Coat Systems (NASDAQ: BCSI) they were downgraded to a Market Perform from a Market Outperform by JMP Securities and Dollar General Corp (NYSE: DG) which was downgraded to a Neutral from a Out Perform by Credit Suisse.

FURIOUS FIVE

This is the Fifth of our Furious Five companies that we see excelling in their industry in 2006. Today we are featuring Coldwater Creek, Inc (NASDAQ: CWTR) it trades on the Nasdaq under the symbol CWTR.

For our outlook, and other vital information on the companies that we feature as the "FURIOUS FIVE" on Wall Street to Main Street just subscribe for FREE at www.namcnewswire.com

We cannot stress enough that investors need to do their due diligence, call the companies, get the information, consult with your investment advisor and if you do not have one consider getting one. Put the same time into investigating these companies as you do when you go to purchase a new television, its only for your protection. When it comes to thinly traded securities stagger your orders or put a limit order in to avoid a run up.

NAMC Newswire Note

Go to the NAMC Newswire for updates at www.namcnewswire.com and you can listen to the NAMC Radio for the audio version of Wall Street to Main Street at www.namcnewswire.com/namcradio

To register to receive the Wall Street to Main Street Free Daily Newsletter Click Here or go to our site and click on the Newsletter section. www.namcnewswire.com/newsletter CEOs that want to contact us can do so by going to www.namcnewswire.com or call us at 888-463-9237.

Louis Victor
NAMC Newswire
888-463-9237

Disclaimer: None of the information contained on the NAMC Newswire constitutes a recommendation by the NAMC Newswire, its journalist, nor its parent company that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific investors or person. Each individual investor must make their own independent decisions regarding any security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy featured on the NAMC Newswire or NAMC Radio Any past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. The NAMC Newswire, its journalist nor its parent company does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit, and all investors should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investments featured on the NAMC Newswire or the NAMC Radio. The strategy or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value and investors may get back less than you invested. Before acting on any information featured on the NAMC Newswire website or the NAMC Radio segment, investors should consider whether it is suitable for their particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from their own financial or investment adviser. Investors are also urged to do their own due diligence before investing in any security.

All opinions featured on the NAMC Newswire or NAMC Radio are based upon information that is considered to be reliable, but neither the NAMC Newswire, its journalist, its parent company, affiliates nor assigns warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. The statements and opinions featured on the NAMC Newswire by its journalist are based on their outlook at the time of the statement or opinion, and are subject to change without notice. NAMC may at times hold a position in the companies that it features, in these cases appropriate disclosure is made.

Louis Victor is the host of the syndicated radio show and financial newsletter "Wall Street to Main Street" which is featured on the NAMC Newswire Radio. He has been involved in the financial industry for over two decades, on the retail and investment banking ends. He is also well versed in the advertising and marketing industries, which has given him insight into market trends and unqiue companies that may be under the radar.

How The Value of Stocks Are Influenced

A stocks value can change at any given moment, depending on market conditions,investor perceptions, or a number of other issues. When investors pour money into a company's stock, they do so because they believe that the company is going to turn a profit, and the company's stock will go up in value. However if the investors decide that the company's outlook is poor, and they don't invest, or if they sell the stock that they already own, then the company's stock price will fall.

Investors that purchase stock, believe that others will by the stock as well, and that the share price will rise. Investing is a gamble, but its nothing like betting on horses. a long shot always has a chance to win the race even if everyone else is betting on the favorite. But in the stock market, the betting itself actually influences the outcome. Should lots of investors bet on a particular stock, the price of the stock will rise. The stock becomes more valuable because investors want it. The reverse is also true, if investors sell their stock in a company, the stock will fall in value. The more a stock fall, the more investors will sell.

Some people just invest in stock to get a quarterly dividend payment. Dividends are a portion of the company's profits that are paid out to its shareholders. Lets say that if a company declares a annual dividend of $8 dollars a share, and you own 100 shares then you will have made $800 dollars a year, or they would be paid $200 dollars each quarter. The company's board of directors decides how large of a dividend the company will pay, or if it will pay one at all. Most of the time only large, mature companies pay dividends. Smaller companies need to keep reinvesting their profits in-order to continue to grow.

All stocks don't act alike. One of the basic differences is how closely a stocks value, or price, is tied to the condition of the economy. Cyclical stocks are the shares of a company that are highly dependant on the state of the economy. When the economy slows down, their earnings fall rapidly, and so dose the price of their stock. However once the economy recovers, a company's earnings will rise rapidly and their stock will go up.

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Your Forex Trading Style - The Spider Or The Cat Approach?

Forex trading is a very individual activity and each trader has a particular Forex trading style depending on their personality type.

Being able to objectively analyze our own trading style is a great asset. We can then develop our style into a more consistent trading method by identifying positive and negative characteristics. The following analogy from the natural world is a tool we can use for self-analysis.

The Cat Versus the Spider

What's the difference?

Cat's Chase Their Prey

Cats by instinct chase their prey. They may stalk for a while and then pounce and chase, following their prey.

Applied to the foreign exchange markets, this type of Forex trading style involves watching for a price breakout or a substantial move in one direction and then joining it, effectively chasing the market.

Some traders like to have this confirmation that price is definitely moving in a particular direction before joining the momentum.

Spider's Net Their Prey

A spider on the other hand spins a web and patiently waits for the prey to come to them. The unsuspecting fly gets caught in the net and the spider gets a meal.

This analogy, as applied to a Forex trading style, exemplifies the trader who carefully examines price action in relation to previous support and resistance levels and anticipates where price is going to stall.

This trader now places an entry order at the strategic level and waits for price to come to them. When it does and fails to break through, instead retracing or bouncing, the trader gets paid!

Advantages Of The Spider Forex Trading Style

While many traders are successful in going with the momentum there are decided advantages to the spider method.

Entering a trade once price has already moved in a certain direction by 20 or 30 pips exposes one to the risk of a retracement. A bigger stop is necessary to cover the possibility that price may go back 20 or 30 pips to retest a previous line of support or resistance.

Also, price may abruptly stop just after we enter a trade moving rapidly in one direction and then retrace taking out the stop for a loss.

On the other hand, after carefully assessing major lines of support and resistance by looking at the higher time frames and seeing where price highs and lows have been over the last few days, we can predict where price is likely to stall or retrace.

Using Fibonacci calculations along with pivot points we can sometimes see 2 or 3 layers of support and resistance. If price has already moved a substantial number of pips during the trading session, it is likely to stall at a key support resistance level. Entering a trade at this point means we can set a smaller stop and we are nearer to getting our profit.

On the other hand, price may have moved a substantial number of pips, perhaps 30 or 40 in one direction, and is now retracing. By looking at the previous high or low, and by using Fibonacci, especially the 50% retracement level, we can predict how far price is likely to retrace before continuing in the direction of the trend.

Submitting an entry order to get into the market at that key retracement level often means we can set the stop just 20 to 25 pips away, beyond the price swing or high for safety, and collect a good profit of 25-40 pips at the Fibonacci 127% extension level.

The One That Gets Away

Of course, the spider will sometimes see a powerful fly go straight through the web and knock a hole in it! That's the one that got away.

The spider Forex trading style will sometimes see price go straight through a strong support or resistance level and not hesitate at all. Again, that's the one that got away!

However, more often than not, price will react at key support and resistance levels. By adopting a patient waiting attitude, allowing price to come to you rather than chasing it, a safer trading approach can be developed, one that can contribute to consistent substantial profits in the long run.

Once you have identified your personal Forex trading style, see if there are lessons you can learn and adjustments you can make using the cat and spider analogy. Try to develop the habit of netting your profits as opposed to chasing them!

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Currency Trading Systems - 5 Tests to Find the Best Systems

Heres a startling fact: Over 95 percent of the currency trading systems promoted by vendors cause traders to lose their money.

So, how do you find one of the 5 percent of trading systems that make money better yet, make big consistent profits.

Here are 5 tests you should apply, in order to find the best systems to incorporate in your Forex trading strategy - thus helping you and achieve big currency trading gains.

1. The Track Record

As the old saying goes, the proof of the pudding is in the eating - and the first place you need to start with any trading system is the track record.

Look for a system thats been used by the vendor - and made real dollars, in real trading.

The problem is, you wont find many systems that qualify.

Youll normally be given a hypothetical track record. Although these systems havent actually been traded buy the vendor, you can see if theyll work for you, by paying attention to the following points:

. Is it tracked in real time? Some ratings agencies do this and calculate profit and loss. This is almost as good as a real time track record - and well worth considering.

. If the system isnt tracked in real time, then dont buy it - move on!

Anyone can produce a track record knowing the closing prices - and most vendors do this - and hope youre naive enough to buy it. The track records are simply made up, and not worth your consideration.

In conclusion, a currency-trading system either must make real profits, or be tracked in real time - to show that the logic that provides the trading signals is soundly based.

2. The logic

Make sure you understand the logic (even if the system is successful). The reason for this is, you must have confidence in the trading systems ability to make money even when it hits a losing streak.

If you dont understand the system, then you wont have confidence in it - and youll lack the discipline to follow the system. If you dont have the discipline to follow a Forex trading system, then you dont really have a system at all!

3. Personality

Some systems require you to make subjective judgements, whilst other systems are totally objective - you must decide which suits you the best. In addition, are you a patient trader? If so, a long-term system will suit you. If youre impatient, then go for a swing trading system.

You also need to look at the worst peak to valley drawdown, using the systems track record. What is the worst loss you would have taken? - And how long did it take to recover?

Are you comfortable with it? Always assume the worst drawdown is to come - and be prepared for it.

Finally, how much work does the trading system need to operate - and do you have sufficient time to operate the system?

4. Find out about the vendor

How long have they been in business? Are they traders themselves?

Ask many questions - and carefully analyse the responses - to see if the vendors answers makes you feel comfortable.

Are they the type of people who you are comfortable working with? Do you think that youll get support when you need it? Start asking questions and youll soon find out!

5. Guarantee

Never buy a currency trading system without a guarantee of satisfaction.

Most vendors who have confidence in their system will give you a money back guarantee and sufficient time to test the system. You should also carefully check the terms and conditions of the guarantee and if you're not happy with them, pass the system by. Somebody will be offering another new trading system for sale before long!

Final Words

Successful currency trading systems are out there - you just have to find them. If you do find a good trading system, it can pay back the purchase price hundreds, maybe even thousands of times over.

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